Thai rice prices moved higher during the past month as strong buying interest from Iraq supported the market. Traders also reported renewed demand from several Asian countries before fresh supplies enter the market. The latest developments have strengthened expectations that prices could remain firm in the coming weeks.
Thai 5% white rice increased by $34 per metric ton over the last month. By June 25, the export price reached $483 per metric ton on a free-on-board basis. Market analysts said Iraqi purchases played an important role in supporting the price increase. Buyers moved to secure supplies before the arrival of the next harvest, expected from late July.
Iraq has remained one of Thailand’s key rice customers. During the first four months of 2026, Iraq imported 91,865 metric tons of Thai rice. Trade between the two countries has stayed strong after Thailand exported around one million metric tons to Iraq during 2025. That steady relationship has continued to influence regional rice markets.
Exporters also pointed to stronger demand from Malaysia and the Philippines. These purchases added further support to prices during recent weeks. Some exporters also covered earlier short positions, which helped lift market values. Together, these factors created additional momentum for the export market.
Attention has now shifted toward Thailand’s second rice crop. Market participants remain divided over how new supplies could affect prices. Some traders expect larger harvests to ease market pressure. Others believe healthy international demand will continue to balance incoming production.
Weather conditions have added another layer of uncertainty. Below-average rainfall may reduce crop yields in several growing regions. Lower production could limit available export supplies later this season. As a result, many traders continue to monitor weather forecasts closely.
The US Department of Agriculture expects Thailand’s rice production to decline slightly during the 2025–2026 marketing year. Current estimates suggest output will fall by 0.7 percent compared with the previous season. Total production could reach about 20.7 million metric tons. Even a modest decline may support prices if export demand remains strong.
Thai rice prices will likely depend on both harvest results and international demand over the coming months. Iraq continues to play an important role in shaping market trends through consistent purchasing activity. If supply remains tight and overseas buying stays active, Thai rice prices could remain supported despite the arrival of fresh crops.