Iraq’s crude oil exports to India averaged 860,000 barrels per day during the first half of 2025. This marks a 4% decrease compared to the 900,000 barrels per day exported during the same period last year. Despite the dip, Iraq remained India’s second-largest crude supplier.
This modest decline in shipments reflects shifting dynamics in India’s oil import preferences. However, the drop has not drastically affected Iraq’s trade relationship with India. The Iraq crude exports remain a major part of India’s energy imports.
Russia held the top position by supplying 1.67 million barrels per day to India during this period. Saudi Arabia followed Iraq closely as the third-largest exporter. India continues to diversify its sources of crude, responding to pricing strategies and geopolitical developments.
Iraq, meanwhile, depends heavily on oil for national revenue. Even a small reduction in exports carries economic weight. The Iraq crude exports form the backbone of the country’s budget, with limited diversification in other income streams.
Officials have not commented on whether Iraq plans to adjust export strategies. Yet the ongoing competition with other oil giants like Russia and Saudi Arabia puts pressure on Iraq to maintain market share.
India’s growing energy demand provides opportunities, but suppliers must remain competitive. Freight costs, oil grades, and bilateral agreements all influence final decisions by Indian refiners.
Some analysts suggest the 4% decline may result from higher output by other suppliers or price-related shifts. Others believe it could be part of short-term fluctuations rather than a long-term trend.
In the coming months, Iraq will likely monitor the situation closely. Trade missions may seek to reinforce ties with Indian importers. The Oil Ministry may also explore price flexibility to secure future contracts.
Maintaining high Iraq crude exports to India remains essential for Baghdad. India’s expanding economy guarantees consistent demand, and Iraq aims to remain a top supplier.
Looking ahead, Iraq must balance between increasing overall output and staying competitive in Asia’s energy markets. The country’s role as a major exporter to India will depend on sustained engagement and strategic planning.