Global oil prices moved slightly lower on Monday after the latest OPEC+ production increase raised expectations of additional crude supplies entering the market. Investors also monitored the recovery of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and developments in diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. Together, these factors weighed on market sentiment at the start of the trading week.
Brent crude futures fell by 34 cents, or 0.47 percent, to $71.78 per barrel during early trading. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by 20 cents, or 0.29 percent, to $68.49 per barrel. WTI did not settle on Friday because US financial markets were closed ahead of the Independence Day holiday.
Despite Monday’s decline, oil prices remained relatively stable over the past week. Markets had already experienced several weeks of downward pressure as traders assessed geopolitical risks and global supply conditions. Investors continued watching developments surrounding shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
Market participants also focused on relations between Washington and Tehran. Analysts believe future diplomatic progress could influence oil shipments from the Gulf and affect global energy markets. Greater stability in the region may support higher export volumes from major producers.
Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said traders remained cautious following the long US holiday weekend. He noted that investors were waiting to see whether relations between the United States and Iran would improve or become more tense during the week. That uncertainty continues to shape short-term trading decisions.
On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to raise production targets again. The group approved an additional increase of 188,000 barrels per day beginning in August. The latest adjustment follows similar production increases announced for June and July.
However, analysts noted that actual production has not always matched official quotas. Regional conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting exports from major producers including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. As a result, some planned production increases have remained largely unrealized.
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said the latest production decision largely matched market expectations. He suggested that quota increases may have limited immediate impact because several producers are still gradually restoring output after recent disruptions. Market participants continue monitoring actual production levels rather than announced targets alone.
Oil exports from Gulf producers have started recovering as shipping activity resumes. According to recent data, Gulf exports increased by more than three million barrels per day in June compared with May. Even so, export volumes remained about 40 percent below levels recorded before the regional conflict.
A Reuters survey also found that OPEC’s total oil production rose by 3.3 million barrels per day in June, reaching 19.43 million barrels per day. The increase marked a significant recovery after production had fallen to its lowest level in more than two decades.
Meanwhile, Russia continued increasing crude exports from its western ports. Industry sources reported that shipments reached record levels in June and could remain elevated during July as refinery damage from Ukrainian drone attacks encouraged higher crude exports.
The latest OPEC+ production increase reflects continued efforts by major producers to restore supply while balancing global demand. Investors will closely monitor export levels, geopolitical developments, and market fundamentals in the coming weeks.